![]() ![]() Previous research has raised concern regarding a weakened correlation between ENSO and the Indian summer monsoon 17. ENSO’s impacts can be complicated by other large scale weather phenomenon such as the Indian Oceanic Dipole (IOD) 14, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 15 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 16. In addition, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) holds significant influence on weather patterns, temperature anomalies, precipitation regimes, and atmospheric circulation patterns 10, 11, 12, 13. This rainband initiates the continental Indian rainy season, the Chinese Mei-yu and the Japanese Baiu in June and matures over July and August, making June–August important months for studying the large-scale precipitation 9. Initially, the monsoon begins with rainfall surges in the South China Sea in May which extends to the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon plays a crucial role that can impact both spatial and temporal variations of precipitation, as described previously 9. The meteorological factors influencing precipitation patterns in the Asia–Pacific region (APR) are exceedingly intricate, characterized by interdependencies among them. Large scale climate phenomenon can influence precipitation patterns across the globe and influence burden of food and waterborne diseases, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) 5, 6, 7, 8. With drier land surfaces and increased precipitation, the land becomes prone to both droughts and floods 2, 3, 4. Higher air temperature and evaporation rate lead to greater accumulation of water vapor in the air, resulting in increased storms, more intense precipitation as well as land surface drying due to prolonged drying periods 2. Ongoing climate change is impacting regional precipitation pattern across the globe 1. These findings revealing patterns and drivers for extreme precipitation in APR may inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in the study region. During ENSO positive phase, significant negative anomalies in seasonal precipitation indices (amount of wet-day precipitation, number of wet days and intensity of wet-day precipitation) were observed in Indonesia, while opposite results were observed for ENSO negative phase. Locations in Malaysia and Indonesia are mostly dominated by precipitation intensity in March–May (MAM) and DJF. We observed that the seasonal variability of the amount of wet-day precipitation in most locations in China and India are dominated by precipitation intensity in June–August (JJA), and by precipitation frequency in December–February (DJF). Results revealed a general decrease indicated by the extreme precipitation indices (e.g., the annual total amount of wet-day precipitation, average intensity of wet-day precipitation), particularly in central-eastern China, Bangladesh, eastern India, Peninsular Malaysia and Indonesia. The analysis covered 465 ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) study locations over eight countries and regions during 1990–2019. We further investigated how these extreme precipitation indices are influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a seasonal scale. In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation spatiotemporal trends in APR using 11 different indices and revealed the dominant factors governing precipitation amount by attributing its variability to precipitation frequency and intensity. In the Asia–Pacific region (APR), extreme precipitation is one of the most critical climate stressors, affecting 60% of the population and adding pressure to governance, economic, environmental, and public health challenges. ![]()
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